Overview
ICRC and InterAction explore methods to capture the nuanced impacts of sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) prevention efforts that move beyond using prevalence alone as a measure of success. Instead, a Results-Based Protection (RBP) approach that includes context-specific analysis and nuanced Theories of Change (ToC) can help humanitarians understand what truly reduces protection risks.
Prevalence studies are a tool that measures the scope, scale, and patterns of a population or community affected by a specific condition, event, or behavior at a given point in time or over a specified period. These studies can provide valuable data, but they are limited when applied to sexual violence because barriers like underreporting and sampling restrictions create incomplete data. Conflict dynamics further skew data because sexual violence can fluctuate around certain moments, like a ceasefire, which are entirely unlinked to prevention efforts.
Instead of relying on prevalence data, humanitarians should focus on the components of SGBV risk – threat, vulnerability, and capacity – outlined in the risk equation. Contextual use of the risk equation enables humanitarians to understand better how particular risks are manifesting, who is most vulnerable, and what existing capacities are already engaged to address the risk.
This analysis of threat, vulnerability, and capacity provides a clearer picture of the SGBV risks and what is necessary to prevent or mitigate them. This is an important first step to designing nuanced ToCs. Unlike broader organizational ToCs, this approach is highly context-specific and outlines the pathways by which behavior of threat actors can change, vulnerabilities to threats can be reduced, and existing protective capacities can be enhanced. By using a context-specific ToC that includes the component parts of the risk equation, SGBV prevention can move beyond focusing on what hasn’t happened and instead capture the concrete behavioral changes that signal progress.